A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
